Vedanta IAS Academy Indian Geography Part-2 Notes for Civil Services UPSC Premlims, Main IASIFSIPSIRS(IT)IRS(C&CE) (English) by Vedanta IAS Academy

Author:Vedanta IAS Academy [Academy, Vedanta IAS]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Published: 2021-12-07T22:00:00+00:00

14 Theories of Population

[ Malthus Theory, Marx’s Theory and Theory of Demographic Transition]

The theorizing about population (population size and change) have remained an important subject since time immemorial. Many of the ancient philosophers like Confucius (China), Kautilya (India), Ibn Khaldin (Arab), Plato (Greece) and modem thinkers like Adam Smith, David Richard and others, eidier directly or indirectly, have said somewhat significant on population issues.

For instance, Kautilya, a contemporary of Plato, had written in his Arthashastra that ‘a large population is a source of political, economic and military strength of a nation’. Similarly, the 14th century Arab historian, Ibn Khaldin maintained in his theory of ‘rise and fall’ that the growth of dense population is generally favourable to the maintenance and increase of imperial power. To the Jews, the injunction to Adam and Eve by the Almighty to ‘be fruitful and multiply, and replenish the earth’ has been a guiding principle for their attitude towards marriage and procreation. The Chinese philosopher, Confucius argued that a numerical balance be maintained between population and environment.

One of the earliest demographers Edmond Halley (1656-1742) was the first scientist to use death statistics in different age groups to determine a person’s likelihood of death as he or she passed through each age group (Population Today, 1986). But, as a science, it emerged only in the last 250 years. The systematic compilation of data was first begun on a large scale in the 19th century Europe.

Malthus’ Theory

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) was the key figure to analyse the population statistics. His formulation on population was a landmark in the history of population theories. He generalized the relationship between population factors and social change.

In his Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) Malthus argued that because of the strong attraction of the two sexes, the population could increase by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years. He contended that the population would eventually grow so large that food production would be insufficient.

Human capacity for reproduction exceeded the rate at which subsistence from the land can be increased. Malthus further wrote ‘Population when unchecked increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.’

Malthus contended that the world’s population was growing more rapidly than the available food supply. He argued that the food supply increases in an arithmetic progression (1, 2, 3, 4, and so on), whereas the population expands by a geometric progression (1, 2, 4, 8, and so on).

According to him, the population could increase by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years.

He said the gap between the food supply and population will continue to grow over time. Even though food supply will increase, it would be insufficient to meet the needs of expanding population.

Moreover, the famine and other natural calamities cause widespread sufferings and increase the death rate, which is nature’s check against population.

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